The same payment reaches very different projects
In these prepared US cases, the eligible statutory $85 payment per tonne stored exceeds the gas-processing project's $78.32 requirement. Ethanol needs $87.97; cement needs $231.25. Those are different starting points for an investment discussion, even under the same payment assumption.
- A concentrated CO₂ stream needs much less separation equipment and energy than a dilute stream.
- External transport and storage add a commitment to assess alongside the capture-plant quotation.
- A payment's duration, monetization and financing terms affect the investment it can support.
Use these investment screens to decide which configurations deserve further work and what evidence could change the decision.
Follow the source through to the commercial question
Follow the source through to the investment question
Build the capture project
- Define the sourceStream concentration · pressure · operating patternCapture configuration
- Supply heat and powerSeparation · compression · dryingEnergy and emissions
- Cost the full routeCapture assets · operation · external transport and storageGross cost
Assess the commercial requirement
- Identify paid tonnesPayment basis · support window · monetizationModeled carbon revenue
- Test the investmentFinancing · tax · sponsor return; separate lender checksRequired payment
The required payment is the total carbon-payment rate needed to meet the sponsor’s return under the modeled terms. Existing support counts toward that total.
The source stream and its operating pattern determine the capture equipment, energy demand and delivered CO₂ volume. Add the route to storage, then test the carbon revenue and financing. Each stage needs credible assumptions and executable contracts.
The capture equipment is only part of the commitment
Kiln off-gas; gas-boiler steam; inland pipeline and storage.
What it costs to capture and store a tonne
USD/t CO₂ captured- Capital
- Steam
- Process power
- Fixed O&M
- Variable O&M
- Compression & drying
- Transport & storage
- Subtotal / total
Scroll across to see all cost components.
Gross cost before carbon revenue, in real 2026 USD. Transport and storage enter as an external toll; all bars use captured tonnes.
The three US cases each combine a source, capture design and operating assumptions.
The cement case costs $148.27 per tonne captured at the plant fence. Capital contributes $104.50 of that amount. The external transport and storage toll adds $44.46, bringing gross cost to $192.73 per tonne captured before carbon revenue.
Gas processing has a concentrated stream that can proceed to compression and drying, avoiding steam-intensive separation. Capture costs $34.06 per tonne; the $31.53 transport and storage contribution is almost as large. For this case, obtaining credible network terms could matter as much as refining the capture budget.
All bars in this exhibit use captured tonnes. That keeps equipment, operation and the external toll on one consistent basis.
Account for the emissions from capture energy
Kiln off-gas; gas-boiler steam; inland pipeline and storage.
From captured CO₂ to emissions avoided
t CO₂ per 100 t captured- Capture-energy emissions
- Subtotal / total
Scroll across to see all cost components.
Avoided emissions equal captured CO₂ less capture-energy emissions, expressed per 100 tonnes captured. The boundary covers capture and its energy use; transport, storage and other lifecycle emissions are excluded.
The same released cost outputs yield the avoided/captured tonne ratio; this exhibit expresses it per 100 tonnes captured.
Capture consumes energy, and supplying that energy creates emissions. In the cement example, capturing 100 tonnes produces another 17.16 tonnes from boiler fuel and 5.15 tonnes from electricity. The net reduction is 77.70 tonnes.
Dividing the same expenditure by the smaller emissions reduction raises the cost from $192.73 per tonne captured to $248.06 per tonne avoided. The change comes entirely from the denominator.
For analysts: the emissions boundary and denominator
The default cement case captures 90% of the CO₂ presented to the capture unit. Deducting emissions from capture energy gives 77.70 avoided tonnes per 100 captured. Both measures use the capture-unit boundary; calculating a full-site reduction percentage requires the site's total emissions.
The heat requirement is 2.6 GJ per tonne captured, supplied by an 85%-efficient gas boiler. Electricity totals 147 kWh per tonne, covering separation, compression and drying. The boiler's own CO₂ is not recaptured. The default accounting also allows for electric-boiler or host-steam effects where applicable. A full lifecycle assessment would extend this boundary to transport, storage and other lifecycle emissions; transport and storage tolls already enter project cost.
The exhibit normalizes the exact released avoided/captured tonne ratio to 100 tonnes. Costs per captured and avoided tonne share the same cost numerator; only the denominator changes.
Eligible stored tonnes measure the CO₂ qualifying for payment, after applying storage efficiency and the scheme's conditions. Captured tonnes measure removal from the source stream; avoided tonnes measure the emissions reduction after capture-energy emissions. The US payment comparison below uses stored tonnes on both sides.
Compare the source before choosing the technology
Solid negative bars show eligible statutory support. Filled markers show net production cost.
US capture and storage cost by source
USD/t CO₂ avoided- Net cost
Select a cost category to see its value in every design.
Net capture and storage cost per tonne avoided for six US sources. Deductions reflect eligible 45Q support over the project life. The investor payment test uses a separate financing calculation.
Support assumptions
- Six US projects · eligible 45Q
All six US designs assume eligibility for $85 per tonne stored for 12 years. Actual payments depend on the project meeting the construction-date, labor, capture and saline-storage conditions.
The support bars discount the annual $85 payment per stored tonne over its payment window, spread that contribution across 25 operating years and express it per tonne avoided.
- Comparison boundary
The six US projects compare complete investment cases: source, energy supply and configuration change together.
Avoided tonnes subtract capture-energy emissions; transport and storage emissions are outside this boundary. Carbon-market value and required investor payments are separate from cost after support.
The six US cases have different equipment and energy requirements because of their source streams. Concentrated process streams need less separation than dilute combustion streams. Transport and storage then add a separate cost whose importance changes with the source.
Use the comparison to frame alternatives within your own asset portfolio. Which streams are already concentrated? Which can access steam or a credible storage route? The ranking reflects each project's source, energy supply and complete configuration. Isolating a technology advantage requires holding the other assumptions constant. The Before support view preserves the cost comparison. Eligible support adds the saved whole-life 45Q contribution for the six US projects. Both views use the same US designs and cost boundary.
Every cost and reduction in this chart uses tonnes avoided. Eligible 45Q lowers gas processing from $68.30 to $13.87 per tonne avoided, while cement falls from $248.06 to $180.79. These net costs deduct the whole-life contribution from support. Converting the annual $85 payment requires the stored-tonne volume and the limited support window. The investor's required payment rate comes from a separate financing calculation.
Test the payment against the investor's requirement
The same payment meets very different requirements
USD/t CO₂ stored- Eligible statutory payment
- Required payment
All three use the same eligible statutory saline-storage payment basis and 12-year support window. Required payment targets the sponsor's return under the assumed financing and tax terms. Lender debt capacity is assessed separately.
The $85 eligible statutory payment gives gas processing $6.68 per tonne of headroom against its required payment. Ethanol falls short by $2.97; cement by $146.25. These results assume immediate use of sponsor tax losses. The near-threshold gas-processing and ethanol cases therefore need their tax position assessed alongside transport offers, capital estimates and financing terms.
For ethanol, a transport offer, revised capital estimate or financing term could change the conclusion. Cement's larger gap calls for a broader assessment of project redesign, cost reduction and additional commercial value.
The required payment is the total rate needed over the modeled support window. Compare it directly with $85 on the same stored-tonne basis.
For analysts: the investor-return calculation
Required payment is the rate that gives the sponsor its assumed return under the model's financing and tax treatment. The base cash flow excludes the carbon revenue being tested. These three cases use the same modeled saline-storage payment, 12-year support window and credit-monetization assumptions over 25 operating years. They include no merchant CO₂ sales or capital grants.
The required-payment calculation uses equity cash flows, debt service, tax and the limited payment window. Levelized cost measures whole-life cost on the stated captured- or avoided-tonne basis. Sponsor tax is linear with immediate loss use. The lender view carries losses forward and assesses debt coverage separately from the sponsor's return requirement. Working capital, decommissioning and salvage are excluded. The statutory credit depends on the stated project eligibility assumptions, including construction beginning before 1 January 2033. The US comparison includes eligible statutory 45Q support. Competitive awards require a separate project-specific assessment.
Let the sensitivities set the next research brief
Kiln off-gas; gas-boiler steam; inland pipeline and storage.
Which uncertainty should the next work resolve?
USD/t CO₂ avoidedChanges from 180.79 USD/t CO₂ avoided. Each assumption changes separately.
Left: lower cost or price. Right: higher cost or price. One-sided results retain their direction.
Three of the workbook's nine drivers are tested separately, each at its stated shift. The bars show calculated changes in net cost after eligible support, including transport and storage.
Each result measures the change from the selected project's net-cost baseline.
For cement, a 20% capital shift moves net cost by $26.90 per tonne avoided. A 40% toll shift moves it by $22.89; a 20% support-rate shift by $13.45. The selected tests give practical weight to both the equipment budget and the downstream agreement.
Each sensitivity measures the change in net cost per tonne avoided when one assumption moves through the stated range. Use the results to prioritize quotations and commercial discussions. Assess probabilities separately and rerun the model to test combined improvements or their effect on the required payment.
Assess Dutch support against its own payment terms
A Dutch capture project needs a separate assessment of its SDE++ category, correction amounts, eligible stored volume and award conditions. EU ETS allowance value also enters the commercial assessment. The interaction of those terms determines the revenue available to the project over time.
For an investment decision, follow those revenues through the same capture design, storage contract and financing assumptions. Confirm the payment basis and support period before comparing them with the investor's required return.
For analysts: Dutch award figures pending reconciliation
The numerical SDE++ award result is excluded from this edition while the model's settlement-tonne basis is reconciled with the scheme's captured-and-permanently-stored payment basis. The six US source comparisons, their 45Q contributions and the captured-to-avoided emissions bridge are unaffected.
An updated Dutch assessment must align eligible stored tonnes, the category ceiling, correction amounts and the payment window. EU ETS allowance value should remain separately identified in the cash flows. Required payment rates also need a common payment period before comparison.
Put your own source and contracts into the model
The released v1.17 workbook provides 16 prepared cases and an editable custom scenario. Compare source streams, capture configurations, energy supply and transport tariffs, then test the assumptions with nine sensitivity drivers. Follow eligible statutory support and carbon-market value through annual cash flows into the sponsor and lender assessments. Conditional awards require scheme-specific checks, including the Dutch settlement-basis reconciliation described above. The package includes technical documentation, quick-start guidance and input-source records.
Bring a source specification, an equipment estimate and the storage terms available to your site. The model helps turn them into an explicit investment screen. CovalentIQ can also help challenge assumptions, research commercial alternatives and determine which uncertainty deserves the next piece of work.
Explore the CCUS model or discuss your project.
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