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e-Methanol · Excel model · Release 1.21

e-Methanol Cost Model

Compare power and carbon-supply choices, the producer’s price requirement and the customer questions still unresolved.

For developers, investors and commercial teams assessing methanol production and marine-fuel opportunities. Connect the production design to its price requirement, then examine the buyer assumptions separately.

See inside the workbookWhat is included
A process column, plant building and vessels at an e-methanol facility.

Inside the workbook

See how the workbook is built.

Start with the model map, then browse the dashboard, inputs, calculations and scenario comparisons.

Explore the modelExcel · v1.21

e-Methanol model map

Input libraries

  • Project & location
  • Hydrogen & synthesis
  • Power & hourly profiles
  • Carbon supply
  • Support & market references
  • Scenarios & comparisons

Scenario selection

  • One active project

Calculation modules

  • Check the configuration
  • Model production & feedstocks
  • Build costs & producer support
  • Calculate cost & required price
  • Test financing & customer value

Results

  • Active-case dashboard
  • Scenario comparison
  • Summary & key metrics

e-Methanol · Workbook v1.21

e-Methanol model map

Connect hydrogen and carbon supply to production economics, then test the customer proposition.

Input libraries

Project & locationTiming, financing and regional assumptions.Inputs_GLOBALInputs_RegionsWorksheet detail

Inputs_GLOBAL

Time basis, physical constants, financing, tax and lender assumptions.

Inputs_Regions

Regional resource, price, cost and tax assumptions.

Hydrogen & synthesisElectrolyzer and synthesis performance, buffering and installed costs.Inputs_ElectrolyzersInputs_SynthesisWorksheet detail

Inputs_Electrolyzers

Technology performance, capital cost, operating cost and stack life.

Inputs_Synthesis

Conversion, operating limits, hydrogen buffer and synthesis costs.

Power & hourly profilesSupply configuration, storage, prices and carbon intensity.Inputs_PowerInputs_ProfilesWorksheet detail

Inputs_Power

Solar, wind, battery and purchased-power configurations and costs.

Inputs_Profiles

Reference-year renewable supply, electricity prices and grid carbon intensity.

Reads from: Inputs_Regions

Carbon supplySource, delivered cost, availability and eligibility.Inputs_CO2Worksheet detail

Inputs_CO2

Delivered carbon cost, source availability, emissions and eligibility.

Support & market referencesProducer terms, product alternatives and buyer compliance rules.Inputs_IncentivesInputs_MarketWorksheet detail

Inputs_Incentives

Producer support terms plus the separate rules used to calculate buyer compliance value.

Inputs_Market

Product prices, fuel alternatives, carbon prices and commercial benchmarks.

Reads from: Dashboard

Scenarios & comparisonsPrepared cases, custom choices and external benchmarks.Inputs_CodesInputs_ScenariosInputs_BenchmarksWorksheet detail

Inputs_Codes

Valid selections, sensitivity definitions and presentation settings.

Inputs_Scenarios

Prepared project configurations and editable custom assumptions.

Inputs_Benchmarks

Published ranges used to compare and interpret modeled results.

Scenario selection

Set on the Dashboard

One active projectResolve the selected preset or custom choices into an active parameter set.Inputs_ActiveWorksheet detail

The Dashboard selects the project. Inputs_Active resolves its library values and custom assumptions. This block summarizes scenario control; individual formulas also read other worksheets.

Inputs_Active

Combine the chosen design, library values and custom overrides into the active assumptions used by the calculations. Shared libraries also feed calculations directly.

Reads from: Inputs_GLOBAL, Inputs_Market, Inputs_Incentives, Dashboard, Inputs_Scenarios, Inputs_Codes, Inputs_Regions, Inputs_Electrolyzers, Inputs_Power, Inputs_CO2, Inputs_Synthesis

The active parameter set is complemented by direct shared-library and hourly-profile references in calculation sheets.

Hourly profiles and shared libraries also feed calculations directly.

Calculation modules

Check the configurationCompatibility, eligibility conditions and model warnings.CALC_EligibilityWorksheet detail

CALC_Eligibility

Test project compatibility and flag invalid combinations or eligibility concerns.

Reads from: Inputs_Active, Inputs_Synthesis, Inputs_GLOBAL

Model production & feedstocksHourly power and hydrogen, carbon supply, synthesis and lifetime output.CALC_DispatchCALC_CO2_SupplyCALC_SynthesisCALC_AnnualWorksheet detail

CALC_Dispatch

Resolve hourly generation, grid imports, electrolysis, battery use and hydrogen-buffer operation.

Reads from: Inputs_Active, Inputs_Synthesis, Inputs_Power, Inputs_GLOBAL, CALC_Eligibility, Inputs_Profiles

CALC_CO2_Supply

Calculate delivered carbon cost and carbon-source eligibility over time.

Reads from: Inputs_GLOBAL, Inputs_Active

CALC_Synthesis

Translate hydrogen feed and operating limits into methanol output and material balances.

Reads from: Inputs_Active, Inputs_Synthesis, Inputs_GLOBAL, CALC_Dispatch

CALC_Annual

Extend reference-year dispatch into annual output, energy, emissions and replacements.

Reads from: Inputs_GLOBAL, Inputs_Active, Inputs_Synthesis, CALC_Dispatch

Build costs & producer supportOwn-or-purchased hydrogen boundary, operating cost and eligible cash.Own hydrogenPurchased hydrogenAlternative hydrogen cost configurations.CALC_CostsCALC_IncentivesWorksheet detail

CALC_Costs applies the own-or-purchased hydrogen choice. CALC_Incentives calculates producer support and contains a separate fuel-qualification and buyer-compliance block. Producer support cash flows exclude buyer compliance value.

CALC_Costs

Combine equipment, operation and feedstock costs; apply the own-or-purchased hydrogen choice.

Reads from: Inputs_GLOBAL, Inputs_Active, Inputs_Power, Inputs_Synthesis, CALC_Dispatch, CALC_Synthesis, Inputs_Market, CALC_CO2_Supply, CALC_Annual

CALC_Incentives

Calculate producer-support cash and, in a separate block, fuel qualification and buyer-compliance values.

Reads from: Inputs_GLOBAL, Inputs_Active, Inputs_Incentives, CALC_Eligibility, CALC_Annual, CALC_Costs, CALC_CO2_Supply, CALC_Dispatch, Inputs_Market

Calculate cost & required priceConstruction, debt and tax; gross and net cost; target-return price.CALC_FinanceCALC_LCOMWorksheet detail

CALC_Finance

Follow construction spending, debt, tax and equity cash flow before product revenue.

Reads from: Inputs_GLOBAL, Inputs_Active, CALC_Costs, CALC_Incentives, CALC_Annual

CALC_LCOM

Report gross and net production cost and solve the selling price required for the sponsor return.

Reads from: Inputs_GLOBAL, Inputs_Active, Inputs_Incentives, CALC_Costs, CALC_Annual, Inputs_Synthesis, CALC_Finance

Test financing & customer valueCoverage, investor returns and separate fuel/compliance comparisons.CALC_BankabilityCALC_ReturnsCALC_Market_TestWorksheet detail

CALC_Bankability

Assess coverage, financing limits and post-support cash flow at the applied price.

Reads from: Inputs_GLOBAL, Inputs_Market, Inputs_Active, CALC_LCOM, CALC_Synthesis, Inputs_Synthesis, CALC_Finance, CALC_Incentives, Inputs_Incentives, CALC_Annual, CALC_Costs

CALC_Returns

Compare the proposed and lender-sized financing structures and their equity results.

Reads from: Inputs_GLOBAL, Inputs_Active, CALC_Bankability, CALC_Finance, CALC_Costs, CALC_Annual, CALC_LCOM

CALC_Market_Test

Compare the required price with calculated fuel and compliance reference values. Observed transaction prices require separate market evidence.

Reads from: Inputs_GLOBAL, Inputs_Active, CALC_Incentives, Inputs_Market, CALC_Annual, CALC_LCOM

Results

Active-case dashboardRead operating results, unit economics, sensitivities and financing.DashboardWorksheet detail

Dashboard

Costs, required price, operating profiles, sensitivities and financing or commercial checks.

Reads from: CALC_Eligibility, CALC_LCOM, CALC_Annual, CALC_Bankability, CALC_Returns, CALC_Synthesis, Inputs_Active, CALC_Market_Test, CALC_Incentives, CALC_Dispatch, Inputs_GLOBAL, CALC_Finance, Inputs_Codes, CALC_Costs, Inputs_Incentives, Inputs_Synthesis, Inputs_Benchmarks

Dashboard contains both scenario controls and result displays. Assess circularity at the individual formula level when worksheets reference each other.

Scenario comparisonCompare complete designs and their principal trade-offs.Dashboard_ScenariosWorksheet detail

The scenario gallery uses native charts linked to the workbook comparison tables. Select the active case on Dashboard.

Dashboard_Scenarios

Compare prepared designs through charts fed from the Dashboard scenario tables.

Reads from: Dashboard

Summary & key metricsUse a compact record of the selected project and its results.SummaryWorksheet detail

Summary

Restate the project’s main production, commercial and financing results.

Reads from: Inputs_Active, CALC_Eligibility, Inputs_GLOBAL, CALC_LCOM, CALC_Annual, CALC_Market_Test, CALC_Bankability, CALC_Returns

Guidance & source evidenceCoverModel_MapInstructionsSources_AuditEvidence_RegisterAppendix_Regimes_GlossaryAppendix_Driver_DefinitionsView worksheet detail

Cover

Model scope, release identity and terms of use.

Model_Map

Guide to the workbook worksheets and calculation flow.

Instructions

Controls, input editing and how to interpret the model.

Sources_Audit

Input origins, evidence status and documented limitations.

Reads from: Inputs_Synthesis, Inputs_CO2, Inputs_Codes, Dashboard, Inputs_Regions, Inputs_Incentives, Inputs_Market, Inputs_GLOBAL, Inputs_Electrolyzers, Inputs_Power

Evidence_Register

Source observations with their scope and interpretation.

Appendix_Regimes_Glossary

Support mechanisms, eligibility conditions and terminology.

Appendix_Driver_Definitions

The assumptions moved by each sensitivity and the applicable shifts.

Assess producer support and buyer compliance value separately.

The customer comparison uses reference values. A sale price and the buyer’s willingness to pay require commercial validation.

Arrows show the main flow between groups. Expand a block for worksheet detail.

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Your analysis in Excel

What would you test?

Which power and carbon supplies fit the design?

Change the electricity arrangement and CO₂ source. Follow hourly hydrogen production and buffering into synthesis and production cost.

What selling price covers the producer’s requirement?

Test capital, operating costs, replacements, support and financing. Keep gross cost, net cost and required price distinct.

Where does the buyer case need evidence?

Explore the marine-fuel policy and cost assumptions behind a calculated buyer-value ceiling. Use the comparison to identify pricing and compliance questions for customer research.

The package

A workbook you can use and inspect.

Editable inputs, visible formulas and guidance for building your own case. Checked in Windows Microsoft 365 desktop Excel.

What is included

  • Issued Excel workbook with editable inputs and visible formulas
  • Dashboard for the active case and a separate scenario-comparison dashboard
  • Executive note, technical guide and quick-start guide (PDF)
  • In-workbook sources, instructions and model map
  • License addendum, package readme and SHA-256 manifest
Boundary
Plant-gate CO2 hydrogenation to methanol
Time resolution
8,760-hour power/H2 reference year
Scenario coverage
16 prepared designs plus CUSTOM
Geographic library
13 regions
CO2 source library
5 source classes
Cost basis
Real 2026 USD per tonne MeOH
Format
Excel .xlsx; no VBA or external workbook links
How the analysis works

Connect electricity and hydrogen

An 8,760-hour reference year represents power supply, electrolyzer dispatch and hydrogen buffering. Synthesis operation determines how intermittent production serves the methanol process.

Specify the carbon source

The CO2 supply calculation distinguishes source classes, cost and carbon-accounting treatment. Purchased-source costs apply to their stated supply boundaries; obtain delivered quotations for the project.

Build the producer requirement

Capital, operating costs, replacements and support flow into gross LCOM, net LCOM and the required methanol price under the selected financing basis.

Compare with a demand-side scenario

The market test calculates a marine-fuel buyer’s economics under selected FuelEU and carbon-price assumptions. Its clearance gap compares those modeled economics with the producer’s requirement. Validate demand and transaction terms with buyers.

Know the boundaries.
  • Modeled shipowner value reflects the selected policy and cost assumptions. Customer acceptance and offtake terms require commercial confirmation.
  • Hydrogen and CO2 assumptions may include declared regional proxies. Check the Sources_Audit and Evidence_Register for the selected design.
  • The model is a plant-gate production screen; terminal, distribution and vessel-specific implementation costs need separate assessment.
  • Physical eligibility and contractual interpretation of renewable fuel rules must be reviewed for the actual project and date.
  • Designed for screening and decision support. Financial-close analysis, project valuation and detailed engineering require project-specific work.
  • The price solve uses linear sponsor tax with immediate loss use. The separate lender view carries tax losses forward without an 80% limitation. No working capital, decommissioning or salvage is modeled.
  • Prices and costs use the documented real-2026 basis. Check support eligibility, tax treatment and carbon accounting for the project and date; conditional awards remain subject to award.
  • Required price and coverage indicators are calculated thresholds. Financing availability and customer willingness to pay require separate commercial evidence.
  • In CUSTOM, Profile source is not cockpit-bound. Check that the profile source and region agree; the default custom case can resolve Danish regional assumptions against Spanish hourly series. The Profile source consistent flag identifies this mismatch.
  • The Dx1 legend uses two columns and three rows. The underlying numerical results are unchanged.
  • The display-only hydrogen reference table retains values from an earlier hydrogen release. Obtain a current quotation when assessing purchased hydrogen.
Set up your first scenario
  1. 01

    Open a working copy in Windows Microsoft 365 desktop Excel. Read Cover, Instructions and Model_Map before changing assumptions.

  2. 02

    Start with a prepared scenario on Dashboard. Record the selected case, financing and offtake basis before comparing results.

  3. 03

    Select CUSTOM to activate the relevant custom selectors. Change one assumption at a time and use the driver definitions to interpret sensitivities.

  4. 04

    Follow the workbook refresh instructions, including F9 for scenario data tables. Save the selected inputs and release version alongside exported results.

Which Excel environment is supported?

Validation covers Windows Microsoft 365 desktop Excel. Scenario comparisons use Excel data tables; follow the workbook refresh instructions, including F9 where indicated. Excel for the web, Google Sheets, LibreOffice and Mac Excel require separate validation before use.

Can I adapt the model?

Yes. Work from a copy, use the documented inputs and CUSTOM scenario, and preserve the original release. Formula or structural changes become your modified version and require your own checks. CovalentIQ can scope project-specific adaptation separately.

Model access

License and model access

Use the workbook within your team. If your question needs different assumptions, additional evidence or a tailored analysis, we can scope that separately.

One-time organization license

Perpetual use of the licensed version. Includes any updates released within 12 months. An optional introductory call is available by arrangement.

License and update terms
Direct purchase: Coming soon
Discuss model access

One-time organization license.

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