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Ammonia · Excel model · Release 3.7

Low-Carbon Ammonia LCOA Model

Compare renewable and gas-based routes to identify the investment and operating assumptions that determine competitiveness.

For teams comparing ammonia production routes, power and gas exposure, or the economics behind an offtake discussion. Assess the complete production system before narrowing the design.

See inside the workbookWhat is included
Generated concept illustration of electrolysis, nitrogen supply, ammonia synthesis and storage with distant wind turbines.

Inside the workbook

See how the workbook is built.

Start with the model map, then browse the dashboard, inputs, calculations and scenario comparisons.

Explore the modelExcel · v3.7

Renewable & low-carbon ammonia model map

Input libraries

  • Project & location
  • Hydrogen & ammonia technology
  • Power & hourly profiles
  • Production & offtake support
  • Scenarios & comparisons

Scenario selection

  • One active project

Calculation modules

  • Check the configuration
  • Model the selected production route
  • Build costs & support
  • Calculate cost & required price
  • Test financing & returns

Results

  • Active-case dashboard
  • Scenario comparison
  • Summary & key metrics

Ammonia · Workbook v3.7

Renewable & low-carbon ammonia model map

Compare complete power-and-hydrogen systems or reforming routes through to ammonia economics.

Input libraries

Project & locationTiming, financing and regional assumptions.Inputs_GLOBALInputs_RegionsWorksheet detail

Inputs_GLOBAL

Shared calendar, timing, financing, tax and other model-wide constants.

Inputs_Regions

Regional prices, grid intensity, tax and cost-of-capital or capital-cost adjustments.

Hydrogen & ammonia technologyElectrolysis, synthesis flexibility, hydrogen storage and reforming.Inputs_ElectrolyzersInputs_AmmoniaInputs_BlueRoutesWorksheet detail

Inputs_Electrolyzers

Electrolyzer capital cost, efficiency, operating limits, degradation and stack replacement assumptions.

Inputs_Ammonia

Haber-Bosch synthesis, flexibility tiers, hydrogen buffering, air separation and process stoichiometry.

Inputs_BlueRoutes

ATR and SMR with capture: gas use, capture rate, upstream methane, CCS-service toll and capital-cost bases.

Power & hourly profilesSupply configuration, storage, prices and carbon intensity.Inputs_PowerInputs_ProfilesWorksheet detail

Inputs_Power

Generation and storage costs plus the permitted power-supply configurations.

Inputs_Profiles

8,760-hour reference-year solar, wind, grid-price and grid-intensity series, with regional benchmark checks.

Reads from: Inputs_Regions

Production & offtake supportSeparate instruments, conditions and contract terms.Inputs_IncentivesWorksheet detail

Inputs_Incentives

Separate production-side and offtake-side support regimes, with terms and eligibility tests for each.

Scenarios & comparisonsPrepared cases, custom choices, benchmarks and release-specific sweeps.Inputs_CodesInputs_ScenariosInputs_BenchmarksInputs_SweepsWorksheet detail

Inputs_Codes

Selector vocabularies, validation lists and tornado driver shifts.

Inputs_Scenarios

Prepared scenario definitions and the editable CUSTOM scenario.

Inputs_Benchmarks

Published ammonia price bands and the market, freight and delivered/plant-gate reference basis.

Inputs_Sweeps

Fixed release-specific gas-price, flexibility and scale sweeps, plus geography data. These comparisons remain unchanged when F9 recalculates the workbook.

Fixed comparison data for this release. Testing new sensitivities requires a separate calculation.

Scenario selection

Set on the Dashboard

One active projectResolve the selected preset or custom choices into an active parameter set.Inputs_ActiveWorksheet detail

The Dashboard selects the project. Inputs_Active resolves its library values and custom assumptions. This block summarizes scenario control; individual formulas also read other worksheets.

Inputs_Active

Resolve the selected preset or CUSTOM controls into one active parameter set.

Reads from: Inputs_Incentives, Inputs_Codes, Inputs_Regions, Inputs_Ammonia, Dashboard, Inputs_BlueRoutes, Inputs_Power, Inputs_Scenarios, Inputs_Electrolyzers, Inputs_GLOBAL, Inputs_Benchmarks

Hourly profiles and shared libraries also feed calculations directly.

Calculation modules

Check the configurationCompatibility, eligibility conditions and model warnings.CALC_EligibilityWorksheet detail

CALC_Eligibility

Test the active route and both support legs against structural, jurisdiction, construction-date and carbon-intensity conditions.

Reads from: Inputs_Active, Inputs_GLOBAL

Model the selected production routeRoute-specific operation feeds a common annual balance.Electrolysis + synthesisReforming + captureChoose the applicable production route.CALC_DispatchCALC_BlueChassisCALC_AnnualWorksheet detail

The electrolytic route models hourly power, hydrogen buffering and synthesis. The parallel reforming route models ATR or SMR with capture. CALC_Annual brings the selected route into the common annual framework.

CALC_Dispatch

Hourly electrolytic route: power generation, battery, electrolyzer, hydrogen buffer and flexible Haber-Bosch synthesis.

Reads from: Inputs_Active, Inputs_Power, Inputs_Ammonia, Inputs_GLOBAL, Inputs_Profiles

CALC_BlueChassis

Parallel steady-state ATR/SMR route: gas, ammonia output, carbon balance, capture and CCS-service cost.

Reads from: Inputs_Active, Inputs_GLOBAL, Inputs_Ammonia, Inputs_BlueRoutes

CALC_Annual

Merge the selected route into annual output, resources, costs and location/market/policy carbon-intensity series.

Reads from: Inputs_GLOBAL, Inputs_Active, CALC_Dispatch, CALC_BlueChassis, Inputs_Electrolyzers, Inputs_Ammonia

Build costs & supportCapital, operation, production support and offtake support.CALC_CostsCALC_IncentivesWorksheet detail

CALC_Costs

Assemble capital investment, construction draws, operating costs and replacement costs.

Reads from: CALC_Annual, Inputs_GLOBAL, Inputs_Active, Inputs_Ammonia, Inputs_Power

CALC_Incentives

Determine annual production and offtake support components under each selected regime and its eligibility gate.

Reads from: Inputs_GLOBAL, CALC_Annual, Inputs_Active, CALC_Eligibility

Calculate cost & required priceFinancing, gross and net ammonia cost, and contract-dependent price.CALC_FinanceCALC_LCOAWorksheet detail

CALC_Finance

Construction funding, debt, tax and cash-flow terms, including the support-free price basis for conditional award terms.

Reads from: CALC_Incentives, CALC_Costs, CALC_Annual, Inputs_GLOBAL, Inputs_Active, Inputs_Benchmarks

CALC_LCOA

Calculate gross and net ammonia cost, separate required-price branches for the offtake mechanism, support decomposition and abatement measures.

Reads from: CALC_Annual, CALC_Costs, CALC_Finance, CALC_Incentives, Inputs_GLOBAL, Inputs_Active, Inputs_Benchmarks, Inputs_BlueRoutes, CALC_Dispatch

Test financing & returnsDebt capacity, stressed coverage, equity return and IRR validity.CALC_BankabilityCALC_ReturnsCALC_IRRWorksheet detail

CALC_Bankability

Test coverage and debt capacity at the chosen revenue basis, including lender stresses and sculpting.

Reads from: CALC_Finance, CALC_Annual, CALC_Costs, Inputs_GLOBAL, CALC_Incentives, Inputs_Active, CALC_LCOA

CALC_Returns

Calculate investor cash flows, equity return, NPV and other return measures on the selected financing structure.

Reads from: CALC_Finance, CALC_Bankability, CALC_Costs, Inputs_GLOBAL, Inputs_Active

CALC_IRR

Count cash-flow roots and show an equity IRR only when the result is unique.

Reads from: Inputs_GLOBAL, CALC_Returns

Results

Active-case dashboardRead operating results, unit economics, sensitivities and financing.DashboardWorksheet detail

Dashboard

Choose the active case; read headline metrics, operating and financial charts, and the scenario/tornado data tables.

Reads from: CALC_Dispatch, CALC_Bankability, CALC_Costs, Inputs_Sweeps, CALC_Returns, Inputs_Codes, CALC_Annual, Inputs_GLOBAL, Inputs_Benchmarks, CALC_Finance, Inputs_Scenarios, Inputs_Active, CALC_LCOA, CALC_Eligibility, Inputs_Power, Inputs_Ammonia, CALC_IRR, CALC_BlueChassis

Dashboard contains both scenario controls and result displays. Assess circularity at the individual formula level when worksheets reference each other.

Scenario comparisonCompare complete designs and their principal trade-offs.Dashboard_ScenariosWorksheet detail

The gallery combines scenario comparisons with release-specific sweep data. Inputs_Sweeps stores fixed comparisons that remain unchanged when F9 recalculates the workbook.

Dashboard_Scenarios

Compare prepared cases, benchmarks and market/return outcomes using native charts and scenario data feeds.

Reads from: Dashboard

This worksheet contains native charts. Their series refer to prepared tables on Dashboard, even where this worksheet itself has no cell formulas.

Summary & key metricsUse a compact record of the selected project and its results.SummaryWorksheet detail

Summary

Printable restatement of the selected case and its headline cost, return and coverage results.

Reads from: Dashboard, Inputs_Active, CALC_Annual, CALC_Returns

Guidance & source evidenceCoverModel_MapInstructionsSources_AuditAppendix_Incentives_GlossaryAppendix_Driver_DefinitionsView worksheet detail

Cover

Purpose, scope, version, conventions and terms of use.

Model_Map

Flow diagram and sheet-by-sheet explanation.

Instructions

Operating workflow, cockpit controls, editable assumptions and interpretation guidance.

Sources_Audit

Material input provenance, basis, evidence grade and source references.

Reads from: Inputs_Incentives, Inputs_GLOBAL, Inputs_Regions, Inputs_Ammonia, Inputs_Power, Inputs_BlueRoutes, Inputs_Electrolyzers, Inputs_Benchmarks, Inputs_Scenarios

Appendix_Incentives_Glossary

Narrative explanation of support regimes and their eligibility conditions.

Appendix_Driver_Definitions

What each tornado driver changes, the declared shifts and applicability.

Reads from: Inputs_Active, Inputs_Codes, CALC_LCOA, Dashboard

Compare the complete configuration.

Keep production support, offtake terms and any capture credit embedded in the service fee explicit.

Arrows show the main flow between groups. Expand a block for worksheet detail.

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Your analysis in Excel

What would you test?

Which route fits the available inputs?

Compare electrolysis with ATR or SMR plus capture. Change power, gas and capital assumptions on a consistent plant-gate basis.

What does flexibility contribute?

Test synthesis flexibility and hydrogen buffering within the renewable system. Examine their effect alongside generation, electrolysis and synthesis investment.

How much does the case depend on support?

Compare gross cost, net cost and required price. Keep production and offtake support separate when assessing a commercial offer.

The package

A workbook you can use and inspect.

Editable inputs, visible formulas and guidance for building your own case. Checked in Windows Microsoft 365 desktop Excel.

What is included

  • Issued Excel workbook with editable inputs and visible formulas
  • Dashboard for the active case and a separate scenario-comparison dashboard
  • Executive note, technical guide and quick-start guide (PDF)
  • In-workbook sources, instructions and model map
  • License addendum, package readme and SHA-256 manifest
Boundary
Low-carbon ammonia production; plant-gate comparison
Route library
Renewable electrolysis and ATR/SMR with capture
Scenario coverage
15 prepared designs plus CUSTOM
Geographic library
7 regions
Support architecture
Production regime plus offtake regime
Cost basis
Real 2026 USD per tonne NH3
Format
Excel .xlsx; no VBA or external workbook links
How the analysis works

Select the route

Renewable routes connect electricity, electrolysis, hydrogen buffering, air separation and Haber-Bosch synthesis. Blue routes use their own gas-based production and capture assumptions.

Represent synthesis flexibility

Haber-Bosch flexibility and the hydrogen buffer affect how intermittent hydrogen supply can serve the synthesis plant. Hourly dispatch applies to the renewable routes; blue-route operating logic is different.

Separate the support legs

Production support and offtake support occupy distinct regime slots. Compare their contribution explicitly and avoid treating a policy benefit as both a cost reduction and a separate sale premium.

Compare on a common basis

The model reports gross and net LCOA, required ammonia price, carbon intensity and financing indicators. Keep plant-gate versus delivered assumptions and domestic versus uniform financing visible.

Know the boundaries.
  • Hourly dispatch covers the renewable routes. Reforming-route process calculations use an annual basis.
  • The comparison ends at the plant gate. Assess shipping, terminal, cracking and end-use conversion requirements separately.
  • Designed for screening and decision support. Financial-close analysis, project valuation and detailed engineering require project-specific work.
  • The price solve uses linear sponsor tax with immediate loss use. The separate lender view carries tax losses forward without an 80% limitation. No working capital, decommissioning or salvage is modeled.
  • Prices and costs use the documented real-2026 basis. Check support eligibility, tax treatment and carbon accounting for the project and date; conditional awards remain subject to award.
  • Required price and coverage indicators are calculated thresholds. Financing availability and customer willingness to pay require separate commercial evidence.
  • In the US SMR CUSTOM award design, the award label can show a COD amount even when the carbon-intensity check rejects the contract. Use the eligibility result and calculated support cash to assess the award.
  • The issued Cover print view can clip its longest lines. Read the native Cover cells for the complete terms.
  • Re-solving edited conditional contract cards requires project-specific verification; the prepared designs and declared award tests are the release reference.
Set up your first scenario
  1. 01

    Open a working copy in Windows Microsoft 365 desktop Excel. Read Cover, Instructions and Model_Map before changing assumptions.

  2. 02

    Start with a prepared scenario on Dashboard. Record the selected case, financing and offtake basis before comparing results.

  3. 03

    Select CUSTOM to activate the relevant custom selectors. Change one assumption at a time and use the driver definitions to interpret sensitivities.

  4. 04

    Follow the workbook refresh instructions, including F9 for scenario data tables. Save the selected inputs and release version alongside exported results.

  5. 05

    Input profile tables have no protection against row insertion. Preserve their structure and change documented input values in a working copy.

Which Excel environment is supported?

Validation covers Windows Microsoft 365 desktop Excel. Scenario comparisons use Excel data tables; follow the workbook refresh instructions, including F9 where indicated. Excel for the web, Google Sheets, LibreOffice and Mac Excel require separate validation before use.

Can I adapt the model?

Yes. Work from a copy, use the documented inputs and CUSTOM scenario, and preserve the original release. Formula or structural changes become your modified version and require your own checks. CovalentIQ can scope project-specific adaptation separately.

Model access

License and model access

Use the workbook within your team. If your question needs different assumptions, additional evidence or a tailored analysis, we can scope that separately.

One-time organization license

Perpetual use of the licensed version. Includes any updates released within 12 months. An optional introductory call is available by arrangement.

License and update terms
Direct purchase: Coming soon
Discuss model access

One-time organization license.

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