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Aviation fuel · Excel model · Release 1.6

e-SAF Price & Mandate-Gap Model

Compare fuel pathways and supply choices to see what drives cost and the jet-fuel price the project requires.

For developers, investors and commercial teams comparing power-to-liquid aviation-fuel designs. Test supply and capital exposure before translating the chosen design into a required contract price.

See inside the workbookWhat is included
An unbranded aircraft wing above clouds in the morning sky, illustrating aviation as an end use for fuel.

Inside the workbook

See how the workbook is built.

Start with the model map, then browse the dashboard, inputs, calculations and scenario comparisons.

Explore the modelExcel · v1.6

Synthetic aviation fuel model map

Input libraries

  • Project & location
  • Hydrogen & conversion routes
  • Power & hourly profiles
  • Carbon supply
  • Support & market references
  • Scenarios & comparisons

Scenario selection

  • One active project

Calculation modules

  • Check the configuration
  • Model production & product mix
  • Build costs & producer-support terms
  • Calculate jet cost & required price
  • Test financing & customer value

Results

  • Active-case dashboard
  • Scenario comparison
  • Summary & key metrics

e-SAF · Workbook v1.6

Synthetic aviation fuel model map

Follow power and carbon supply through alternative synthesis routes to jet output and contract economics.

Input libraries

Project & locationTiming, financing and regional assumptions.Inputs_GLOBALInputs_RegionsWorksheet detail

Inputs_GLOBAL

Time basis, physical constants, financing, tax and lender assumptions.

Inputs_Regions

Regional resource, price, cost and tax assumptions.

Hydrogen & conversion routesElectrolyzer performance, conversion yields, limits and coproducts.Inputs_ElectrolyzersInputs_PathwaysWorksheet detail

Inputs_Electrolyzers

Technology performance, capital cost, operating cost and stack life.

Inputs_Pathways

Alternative conversion routes, operating limits, yields and coproducts.

Power & hourly profilesSupply configuration, storage, prices and carbon intensity.Inputs_PowerInputs_ProfilesWorksheet detail

Inputs_Power

Solar, wind, battery and purchased-power configurations and costs.

Inputs_Profiles

Reference-year renewable supply, electricity prices and grid carbon intensity.

Reads from: Inputs_Regions

Carbon supplySource, delivered cost, availability and eligibility.Inputs_CO2Worksheet detail

Inputs_CO2

Delivered carbon cost, source availability, emissions and eligibility.

Support & market referencesStatutory credits, conditional contracts and buyer-side obligations.Inputs_RegimesInputs_MarketWorksheet detail

Inputs_Regimes

Statutory credits, conditional award terms and separate buyer-side obligations.

Inputs_Market

Product prices, fuel alternatives, carbon prices and commercial benchmarks.

Reads from: Inputs_GLOBAL

Scenarios & comparisonsPrepared cases, custom choices and external benchmarks.Inputs_CodesInputs_ScenariosInputs_BenchmarksWorksheet detail

Inputs_Codes

Valid selections, sensitivity definitions and presentation settings.

Inputs_Scenarios

Prepared project configurations and editable custom assumptions.

Inputs_Benchmarks

Published ranges used to compare and interpret modeled results.

Scenario selection

Set on the Dashboard

One active projectResolve the selected preset or custom choices into an active parameter set.Inputs_ActiveWorksheet detail

The Dashboard selects the project. Inputs_Active resolves its library values and custom assumptions. This block summarizes scenario control; individual formulas also read other worksheets.

Inputs_Active

Combine the chosen design, library values and custom overrides into the active assumptions used by the calculations. Shared libraries also feed calculations directly.

Reads from: Dashboard, Inputs_Scenarios, Inputs_Regions, Inputs_Codes, Inputs_GLOBAL, Inputs_CO2, Inputs_Electrolyzers, Inputs_Pathways, Inputs_Regimes, Inputs_Power, Inputs_Benchmarks

The active parameter set is complemented by direct shared-library and hourly-profile references in calculation sheets.

Hourly profiles and shared libraries also feed calculations directly.

Calculation modules

Check the configurationCompatibility, eligibility conditions and model warnings.CALC_EligibilityWorksheet detail

CALC_Eligibility

Test the selected route, technology and policy conditions.

Reads from: Inputs_Active, Inputs_GLOBAL

Model production & product mixPower, hydrogen and carbon supply feed the selected route and its outputs.FT · RWGSFT · SOECMethanol-to-jetAlternative routes; jet and coproducts are separated.CALC_DispatchCALC_H2CALC_CO2_SupplyCALC_SynthesisCALC_SlateWorksheet detail

FT denotes Fischer–Tropsch synthesis; RWGS is reverse water-gas shift and SOEC is solid-oxide electrolysis. These two FT configurations and methanol-to-jet are alternatives. Dispatch and carbon supply feed synthesis; CALC_Slate separates jet and saleable coproducts.

CALC_Dispatch

Resolve hourly power supply, electrolysis, hydrogen-buffer operation and feed to synthesis.

Reads from: Inputs_Active, Inputs_Power, Inputs_GLOBAL, Inputs_Profiles

CALC_H2

Calculate hydrogen output, aging, replacements and carbon intensity through project life.

Reads from: Inputs_GLOBAL, Inputs_Active, CALC_Dispatch

CALC_CO2_Supply

Calculate delivered carbon cost, availability and eligibility.

Reads from: Inputs_GLOBAL, Inputs_Active, CALC_Eligibility, CALC_H2

CALC_Synthesis

Calculate route-specific conversion and crude synthesis output.

Reads from: Inputs_GLOBAL, Inputs_Active, CALC_Dispatch, CALC_CO2_Supply, CALC_H2

CALC_Slate

Apply upgrading yields and allocate the output between jet and other saleable products.

Reads from: Inputs_GLOBAL, CALC_Synthesis, Inputs_Active

Build costs & producer-support termsCapital, operation, feedstocks, eligible credits and contract coverage.CALC_CostsCALC_IncentivesWorksheet detail

CALC_Costs

Combine capital, fixed and variable operation, energy and carbon supply costs.

Reads from: Inputs_GLOBAL, Inputs_Active, CALC_Dispatch, CALC_H2, CALC_Synthesis, CALC_Slate

CALC_Incentives

Apply eligible hydrogen credits and establish conditional contract coverage; price-dependent settlement is calculated later.

Reads from: Inputs_GLOBAL, Inputs_Active, Inputs_Market, CALC_Eligibility, CALC_H2, CALC_CO2_Supply

Calculate jet cost & required priceFinancing, coproduct revenue and price-dependent contract settlement.CALC_FinanceCALC_JetWorksheet detail

CALC_Finance builds financing and coproduct cash flows before jet revenue. CALC_Jet allocates cost, solves the required jet selling price and calculates conditional contract settlement after the pre-award price. A two-way contract can create a top-up or a payback, with the amount determined by the settlement terms.

CALC_Finance

Follow construction funding, debt, tax, support and coproduct revenue before jet revenue.

Reads from: Inputs_GLOBAL, Inputs_Active, CALC_Costs, CALC_Incentives, CALC_Slate

CALC_Jet

Allocate production cost to jet, solve the required jet price and calculate a conditional contract settlement.

Reads from: Inputs_GLOBAL, Inputs_Active, CALC_CO2_Supply, CALC_Incentives, CALC_Finance, Inputs_Market, CALC_Costs, CALC_Synthesis, CALC_Slate, CALC_H2

Test financing & customer valueCoverage, investor returns and separate mandate/compliance references.CALC_ComplianceCALC_BankabilityCALC_ReturnsWorksheet detail

CALC_Compliance

Compare the required price with market references, mandate penalties and buyer-compliance values.

Reads from: Inputs_GLOBAL, Inputs_Market, Inputs_Active, CALC_Jet, CALC_Incentives

CALC_Bankability

Assess financing, coverage, downside and post-support performance at the applied price.

Reads from: Inputs_GLOBAL, Inputs_Active, CALC_Finance, CALC_Jet, CALC_Incentives, CALC_Slate, CALC_Costs, CALC_Compliance

CALC_Returns

Follow equity results and cash flows under the proposed and lender-sized structures.

Reads from: Inputs_GLOBAL, Inputs_Active, CALC_Jet, CALC_Bankability, CALC_Finance, Inputs_Codes, CALC_Slate, CALC_Incentives, CALC_Costs

Results

Active-case dashboardRead operating results, unit economics, sensitivities and financing.DashboardWorksheet detail

Dashboard

Costs, required price, operating profiles, sensitivities and financing or commercial checks.

Reads from: Inputs_Active, CALC_Jet, CALC_Costs, Inputs_GLOBAL, CALC_Finance, CALC_Incentives, CALC_Eligibility, CALC_Bankability, CALC_Returns, CALC_CO2_Supply, CALC_Synthesis, CALC_Compliance, CALC_H2, CALC_Slate, Inputs_Codes, CALC_Dispatch, Inputs_Scenarios, Inputs_Regions, Inputs_Benchmarks

Dashboard contains both scenario controls and result displays. Assess circularity at the individual formula level when worksheets reference each other.

Scenario comparisonCompare complete designs and their principal trade-offs.Dashboard_ScenariosWorksheet detail

The scenario gallery uses native charts linked to the workbook comparison tables. Select the active case on Dashboard.

Dashboard_Scenarios

Compare prepared designs through charts fed from the Dashboard scenario tables.

Reads from: Dashboard

This worksheet contains native charts. Their series refer to prepared tables on Dashboard, even where this worksheet itself has no cell formulas.

Summary & key metricsUse a compact record of the selected project and its results.SummaryWorksheet detail

Summary

Restate the project’s main production, commercial and financing results.

Reads from: Dashboard

Guidance & source evidenceCoverModel_MapInstructionsSources_AuditAppendix_Regimes_GlossaryAppendix_Driver_DefinitionsView worksheet detail

Cover

Model scope, release identity and terms of use.

Model_Map

Guide to the workbook worksheets and calculation flow.

Instructions

Controls, input editing and how to interpret the model.

Sources_Audit

Input origins, evidence status and documented limitations.

Reads from: Inputs_GLOBAL, Inputs_Active, Inputs_Power

Appendix_Regimes_Glossary

Support mechanisms, eligibility conditions and terminology.

Appendix_Driver_Definitions

The assumptions moved by each sensitivity and the applicable shifts.

Keep the contract and product boundaries visible.

Jet and coproducts, producer cash and buyer value each have their own calculation basis.

Arrows show the main flow between groups. Expand a block for worksheet detail.

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Your analysis in Excel

What would you test?

Where does each pathway carry its cost?

Compare Fischer–Tropsch and methanol-to-jet designs. Test the carbon source, power arrangement, scale and capital assumptions.

How does variable hydrogen serve synthesis?

Trace hourly hydrogen production, buffer inventory and synthesis feed. See how the operating design carries into annual jet, naphtha and LPG output.

What jet-fuel price does the design require?

Test financing, support and product allocation. Compare required prices across complete designs, keeping assumed support distinct from secured revenue.

The package

A workbook you can use and inspect.

Editable inputs, visible formulas and guidance for building your own case. Checked in Windows Microsoft 365 desktop Excel.

What is included

  • Issued Excel workbook with editable inputs and visible formulas
  • Dashboard for the active case and a separate scenario-comparison dashboard
  • Executive note, technical guide and quick-start guide (PDF)
  • In-workbook sources, instructions and model map
  • License addendum, package readme and SHA-256 manifest
Boundary
Plant-gate PtL jet production and required-price screen
Pathways
Fischer-Tropsch and methanol-to-jet
Time resolution
Hourly power/H2 and buffer; annual downstream
Scenario coverage
17 prepared designs plus CUSTOM
Cost basis
Real 2026 USD per tonne jet
Format
Excel .xlsx; no VBA or external workbook links
How the analysis works

Define the fuel pathway

Fischer-Tropsch and methanol-to-jet use different synthesis and upgrading assumptions. The active scenario specifies the technology, scale, CO2 source and support regime.

Bridge variable hydrogen to synthesis

The power and hydrogen leg uses an 8,760-hour reference year, with hourly buffer and synthesis-feed treatment. Downstream annual economics carry the resulting production and product slate.

Allocate the product economics

Jet, naphtha and LPG outcomes require an explicit allocation basis. The cockpit’s allocation control affects how the economics are attributed and must remain visible in a comparison.

Know the boundaries.
  • Power/H2 dispatch and buffer/feed calculations run hourly. Downstream synthesis and product economics use annual balances; dynamic refinery simulation is outside the model’s scope.
  • Mandates and support enter as scenario assumptions. Confirm project eligibility, award status and achievable contract terms before applying them commercially.
  • CO2 supply in some regions uses declared stand-ins. Validate local availability, specification and delivered cost before investment use.
  • Designed for screening and decision support. Financial-close analysis, project valuation and detailed engineering require project-specific work.
  • The price solve uses linear sponsor tax with immediate loss use. The separate lender view carries tax losses forward without an 80% limitation. No working capital, decommissioning or salvage is modeled.
  • Prices and costs use the documented real-2026 basis. Check support eligibility, tax treatment and carbon accounting for the project and date; conditional awards remain subject to award.
  • Required price and coverage indicators are calculated thresholds. Financing availability and customer willingness to pay require separate commercial evidence.
  • After changing a preset, the tornado's n/a wording follows the live regime until F9 refreshes the table. Refresh before exporting the chart.
  • The display-only hydrogen reference table retains values from an earlier hydrogen release. Obtain a current quotation when assessing purchased hydrogen.
  • Storage 48E is not included. Conditional contracts may constrain the modeled loan tenor even when the unawarded design uses a longer tenor.
Set up your first scenario
  1. 01

    Open a working copy in Windows Microsoft 365 desktop Excel. Read Cover, Instructions and Model_Map before changing assumptions.

  2. 02

    Start with a prepared scenario on Dashboard. Record the selected case, financing and offtake basis before comparing results.

  3. 03

    Select CUSTOM to activate the relevant custom selectors. Change one assumption at a time and use the driver definitions to interpret sensitivities.

  4. 04

    Follow the workbook refresh instructions, including F9 for scenario data tables. Save the selected inputs and release version alongside exported results.

  5. 05

    Dense coverage-chart labels can crowd in extreme custom high-price scenarios; inspect the underlying values when needed.

Which Excel environment is supported?

Validation covers Windows Microsoft 365 desktop Excel. Scenario comparisons use Excel data tables; follow the workbook refresh instructions, including F9 where indicated. Excel for the web, Google Sheets, LibreOffice and Mac Excel require separate validation before use.

Can I adapt the model?

Yes. Work from a copy, use the documented inputs and CUSTOM scenario, and preserve the original release. Formula or structural changes become your modified version and require your own checks. CovalentIQ can scope project-specific adaptation separately.

Model access

License and model access

Use the workbook within your team. If your question needs different assumptions, additional evidence or a tailored analysis, we can scope that separately.

One-time organization license

Perpetual use of the licensed version. Includes any updates released within 12 months. An optional introductory call is available by arrangement.

License and update terms
Direct purchase: Coming soon
Discuss model access

One-time organization license.

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